19 Jul

US Crude Oil Exports Could Rise

WRITTEN BY Gordon Kristopher FEATURED IN Commodities

US crude oil exports

US crude oil exports fell 28% to 1,461,000 bpd (barrels per day) last week, but rose by 733,000 bpd (101%) YoY (year-over-year) due to the oil export ban being lifted, domestic oil production rising, and the Brent-WTI spread widening.

US Crude Oil Exports Could Rise

The Brent-WTI crude oil spread

Between July 11 and 18, the Brent-WTI crude oil spread widened to $4.14 from $3.02 per barrel, which could spur US oil producers to export more crude oil and benefit US crude oil refiners. The spread hit $11.40 per barrel on June 7, the widest spread since February 27, 2015. US crude oil exports, which usually lag behind the spread, hit a record high of 3,000,000 bpd in the week ended June 22.

Last week, exports were 51% below their June 22 high, and the Brent-WTI spread narrowed by 41%. However, the spread widened between July 11 and 18, suggesting exports could rise.

The VanEck Vectors Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) rose 0.82% to $32.02 between July 11 and 18, while HollyFrontier (HFC), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Delek US Holdings (DK), and Andeavor (ANDV) rose 6.5%, 3.7%, 3.4%, and 3.1%, respectively. The stocks account for ~20% of CRAK. Next, we’ll cover US gasoline inventories.

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