On January 4, 2018, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 17.9%—2.9% above its 15-day average.
Usually, oil (UCO) prices and the implied volatility are inversely related. In the last 30 trading sessions, US crude oil prices rose 9.1% and the implied volatility fell 21.5%. On December 22, 2017, the implied volatility fell to 15.5%—the lowest since September 2, 2014, or the lowest in more than three years. On January 4, 2018, US crude oil futures rose to the highest closing level in the last three years.
At a probability of 68%, US crude oil futures’ closing price could be between $60.47 and $63.55 per barrel until January 11, 2018. The model is based on the assumption that prices are normally distributed. The price range is based on oil’s current implied volatility of 17.9%.
On January 4, 2018, US crude oil futures were at $62.01 per barrel—a three-year high. However, investors expecting a big move in the S&P 500 Index (SPY) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DIA) based on higher oil prices should stay cautious. Similarly, investors in ETFs like the Fidelity MSCI Energy ETF (FENY) should stay cautious.
US crude oil futures contracts for February delivery also rose 0.6% to $62.01 per barrel on January 4, 2018—the highest settlement since December 2014.
Tilray (TLRY) reported its quarterly earnings after the market closed. The company reported a total quarterly sales of $15.5, which increased nearly 203.8% year-over-year.
Earlier today, US tech giant Apple (AAPL) launched new versions of its iPad Air and iPad Mini. The company is set to hold a special event on March 25.
Facebook has stated that over 700 million of its users play games, watch gaming videos, and engage in gaming groups on its platform.
On March 18, President Trump tweeted, “GDP growth during the four quarters of 2018 was the fastest since 2005.” Let’s look at the data.
Today, Steel Dynamics released its first-quarter earnings guidance. It expects its first-quarter EPS to be between $0.88 and $0.92.
Amazon (AMZN) recently teamed up with the Yankees and other investors to purchase the YES Network.