17 Apr

Will Crude Oil Prices Break below the 100-Day Moving Average?

WRITTEN BY Gordon Kristopher FEATURED IN Commodities

Crude oil prices and US stock exchanges  

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (IXC) (IYE) (XES) futures for May delivery are near a one-month high as of April 17, 2017. So far, crude oil prices and broader markets such as the S&P 500 (SPY) (SPX-INDEX) are diverging in 2017. SPY has risen 4% YTD (year-to-date). However, US crude oil prices have fallen ~6% YTD. Meanwhile, US crude oil prices have risen ~17% in the last 12 months. SPY rose ~12% during the same period. So, bullish momentum in the US stock market could partially support oil prices. For more on crude oil prices, read Part 1 of this series.

Will Crude Oil Prices Break below the 100-Day Moving Average?

Crude oil’s highs in the last 15 months  

US WTI crude oil prices settled at $54.45 per barrel on February 23, 2017—the highest level since June 2015. As of April 13, 2017, crude oil prices were 2.4% below their high.

Key bullish drivers for crude oil in 2017  

Crude oil’s lows in the last 15 months 

US crude oil settled at $26.21 per barrel on February 11, 2016. Crude oil prices hit a 13-year low due to the following factors:

As of April 13, 2017, crude oil prices have risen 107.7% from their 2016 lows. Higher crude oil (FENY) (BNO) (ERY) prices have a positive impact on oil producers’ earnings such as Continental Resources (CLR), Northern Oil & Gas (NOG), and Triangle Petroleum (TPLM).

Key bearish drivers for crude oil in 2017  

Crude oil price forecasts  

Crude oil prices’ upside could be limited due to the factors mentioned above. Prices are trading above their 200-day moving averages. However, they’re near their 100-day moving averages. Any rise in supplies from the US could pressure crude oil prices.

Meanwhile, Russia’s central bank expects that Brent crude oil prices could fall as low as $40 per barrel by the end of 2017 if OPEC doesn’t extend major producers’ production cut deal in 2H17. For more on crude oil price forecasts, read the last part of the series.

In the next part of the series, we’ll look at how Cushing crude oil inventories impact crude oil prices.

Latest articles

18 Mar

Tilray Reports Its Fourth-Quarter Earnings

WRITTEN BY Adam Jones

Tilray (TLRY) reported its quarterly earnings after the market closed. The company reported a total quarterly sales of $15.5, which increased nearly 203.8% year-over-year.

Earlier today, US tech giant Apple (AAPL) launched new versions of its iPad Air and iPad Mini. The company is set to hold a special event on March 25.

18 Mar

How Facebook Aims to Compete with Twitch

WRITTEN BY Sean Allen

Facebook has stated that over 700 million of its users play games, watch gaming videos, and engage in gaming groups on its platform.

On March 18, President Trump tweeted, “GDP growth during the four quarters of 2018 was the fastest since 2005.” Let’s look at the data.

Today, Steel Dynamics released its first-quarter earnings guidance. It expects its first-quarter EPS to be between $0.88 and $0.92.

18 Mar

Why Amazon Is Interested in YES Network

WRITTEN BY Naomi Gray

Amazon (AMZN) recently teamed up with the Yankees and other investors to purchase the YES Network.