In the last two weeks, the stock of ConocoPhillips (COP), a crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) producer, has outperformed crude oil prices. It has fallen from $47.04 to $45.67. Crude oil prices fell steeply, from $53.99 per barrel to $48.49 per barrel during the same period.
In 2016, COP stock rose ~10.0%. So far in 2017, it has fallen ~9.0%. COP stock hit its 52-week low of $38.19 on April 5, 2016. It hit its 52-week high of $53.17 on December 13, 2016.
Did COP peers also outperform?
COP’s peers Devon Energy (DVN), Consol Energy (CNX), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) have fallen ~6.0%, ~4.0%, and ~2.0%, respectively, in the last two weeks. Even though oil and gas exploration and production companies (XOP) outperformed crude oil, they lagged behind the S&P 500 (SPY) over the last two weeks.
How COP stock performed over the medium term
COP stock rallied from its low of $38.37 in August 2016 to a high of $52.89 in December, 2016. Since then, the stock has been in a moderate downtrend and could be consolidating its gains. Currently, COP is trading below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day moving average.
On March 10, 2017, COP stock closed at $45.67. Its 50-day and 200-day moving averages were $49.03 and $44.75, respectively. COP’s 50-day moving average fell two weeks ago, but its 200-day moving average is still trending upward.
Next, let’s analyze the possible trading range for COP stock this week based on its implied volatility.
As of February 28, 2017, ConocoPhillips’s (COP) total shares shorted (or short interest) was ~13.2 million. The short interest ratio for COP stock is ~1.8x.
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